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COT report shows how money managers have strongly decreased their long positions on crude oil

WTI Crude oil (NYMEX) fell to $68.77 (-1.41%) and Brent to $79.39 (-0.82%) as of 2.32 PM EDT on October 18th, amid rising U.S. crude stockpiles, forecasts for slower-than-expected demand growth and a sell-off in stock markets which have weighed on crude futures. WTI has fallen nearly -11% from peak to trough over the last two weeks, while Brent has fallen more than -9%.

Fri, 10/19/2018 - 09:34

U.S. Treasury yield curve flattens, as bond selloff softens

U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened this week, with the difference between 2- and 10-year yields falling to 29 basis points on October 17th. The yield on the 2-year Treasury has fallen to 2.87% and that one on 10-year to 3.16%.  The yield on the 5-year benchmark has fallen to 3.02% and that one on the 30-year to 3.32% on the same day. As a consequence, the spread between 5- and 30-year yield has fallen to 30 basis points. 

Thu, 10/18/2018 - 09:23

COT indicator shows how leveraged funds have increased their bets on a Pound depreciation against the Dollar

The Pound rose to 1.3191 (+0.30%) against the Dollar on October 16th, as Brexit imbalances still seem far from being solved. Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has said on October 16th that the British government must produce new “concrete proposals” if it wants to see a breakthrough in the Brexit talks, ahead of the imortant October 18 European council, where the Head of states will discuss the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

Wed, 10/17/2018 - 09:40

Investors bet on a more dovish normalisation process by the FED

Investors bet on up to 5 interest rate hikes by the FED this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The FedWatch calculates the probabilities given to a target rate spectrum, for the next FOMC meetings. Probabilities of possible Fed Funds target rates are based on Fed Fund futures contract prices assuming that the rate hike is equal to 0.25% (25 basis points) and that the Fed Funds Effective Rate (FFER) will react by a like amount. FOMC meetings probabilities are determined from the corresponding CME Group Fed Fund futures contracts. 

Tue, 10/16/2018 - 12:13

COT indicator shows how dealers have strongly increased again their long positions on EURUSD

Governor Mario Draghi told the ECB's Quantitative Easing has been 'very effective'. Draghi said that 'our measures are playing a decisive role in bringing inflation back on track to reach a level that is below, but close to, 2,0% over the medium term. However, we need to be patient, persistent and prudent in our policy to ensure that inflation remains on a sustained adjustment path.' Olli Rehn, the head of the Bank of Finland and a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council said returning Europe’s super-easy monetary policy to normal will be a very long and gradual process.

Mon, 10/15/2018 - 09:44

COT report shows how all investors have increased their long positions on crude oil

WTI Crude oil (NYMEX) fell to $71.33 (-2.51%) and Brent to $80.94 (-2.59%) as of 1.00 PM EDT on October 11th, as a consequence of a retreat in global stock markets and with prices hit by an industry report showing U.S. crude inventories have risen more than expected. EIA data showed crude oil inventories rose by 5.987M barrels in the week to October 5th, much more than forecasts for a stockpile build of 2.62M barrels, which came after an unexpected build of almost 8M barrels in the previous week.

Fri, 10/12/2018 - 09:26

U.S. Treasury yield curve strongly steepens, as selloff continues

U.S. Treasury yield curve has strongly steepened this week, with the difference between 2- and 10-year yields rising to 33 basis points on October 10th. The yield on the 2-year Treasury has risen  to 2.88% and that one on 10-year to 3.21%.  The yield on the 5-year benchmark has risen to 3.05% and that one on the 30-year to 3.37% on the same day. As a consequence, the spread between 5- and 30-year yield has risen to 32 basis points. 

Thu, 10/11/2018 - 09:20

COT indicator shows how leveraged funds have strongly decreased their short positions on GPBUSD

The Pound rose to 1.3138 (+0.37%) against the Dollar on October 9th, as Brexit imbalances still seem far from being solved. Prime Minister Theresa May’s hopes of making progress on the Irish border issue in the Brexit negotiations with the EU officials have come under attack from both the Democratic Unionist leader, Arlene Foster, and the Dutch government.

Wed, 10/10/2018 - 09:26

Investors increase their bets on a 'hike' scenario for the next FOMC meeting

Investors bet on up to 5 interest rate hikes by the FED this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The FedWatch calculates the probabilities given to a target rate spectrum, for the next FOMC meetings. Probabilities of possible Fed Funds target rates are based on Fed Fund futures contract prices assuming that the rate hike is equal to 0.25% (25 basis points) and that the Fed Funds Effective Rate (FFER) will react by a like amount. FOMC meetings probabilities are determined from the corresponding CME Group Fed Fund futures contracts. 

Tue, 10/09/2018 - 09:24

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