The gold market is experiencing a consolidation which is deemed necessary by analysts, down from the last 6-year high, but many experts believe that the rally is destined to continue.
Gold prices came under pressure after Federal Reserve bankers tried to manage expectations before the next monetary policy meeting in July. Investor expectations for a 50 basis point cut in the next FOMC have declined since Governor Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank will not overreact to a short-term sentiment fluctuation. August gold futures were traded at $ 1,407.6 an ounce yesterday, down -0.28%. The question is whether the gold rally is destined to continue even in the coming weeks.
From a technical analysis point of view, gold must support the $ 1,380 threshold, a significant resistance over the past four years. On the upside, prices face an initial resistance of $ 1,485 and $ 1,585 an ounce, both representing critical retracement levels compared to 2011 highs.
The strength of gold appears to be justified by the context of falling global bond yields. Last week, the value of the global debt with a negative yield rose to a new record of $ 13 trillion. The combination of lower interest rates, falling bond yields and the potential for a weaker dollar are the main causes that can drive the gold rally forward.
Although the Fed is trying to manage expectations, Powell’s latest comments have not moved the big picture much: the market continues to expect expansionary monetary policy stimuli. The market firmly believes that the economic risks of the ongoing trade war between the United States and China will force the Fed to react more strongly and faster than it said.