The Week ahead – week commencing 13th of May
Coming off a week full of US-China-based volatility, markets will no doubt continue to reflect the optimism or pessimism of any talks between the two sides. However, with a host of economic readings, we will see a wide spread of volatility as the week progresses. UK jobs data, US retail sales, alongside Eurozone GDP and inflation should ensure enough interest for fundamentally driven traders. The week begins once again under the cloud of US-China trade tensions. Investors will keep a close eye out for updates after US president Donald Trump late last week ordered a sharp rise in the punitive tariff rate imposed on about $200bn worth of Chinese imports, from 10 percent to 25 percent.
Economic data The US economic calendar is stacked next week with updates on the health of the housing market, manufacturing and the consumer. But it is retail sales and industrial production that will be most closely watched.
Economists project retail sales to have risen 0.2 percent month-on-month in April, while control sales that strip out more volatile items such as food, petrol and building materials are forecast to be up 0.3 percent Industrial production are expected to stay flat.
The first release of Germany’s gross domestic product is out on Wednesday. The world’s fourth-largest economy narrowly missed a technical recession in the final quarter of 2018, but there are signs of improved activity, not least Eurozone growth. The consensus points to quarterly growth of 0.4 per cent for this release.
The UK jobs report is out on Tuesday. Britain’s jobs market has been robust despite wider concerns about the future of the economy after Brexit. Mothers, the over-50s and students entering work helped drive UK employment to a record high during the three months to the end of February.
Turkey also has several data releases over the week, with Tuesday’s production data likely to provide some pointers as to how long the nation’s recession will last.