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Market Analysis

The trading week ahead – week commencing the 18th of February

Key things for this trading week on the economic front include the Eurozone consumer price index (CPI), which will be published on Friday 22 and some important sentiment indicators for different countries.

On Tuesday 19, some important data on the UK labour market will be published, including the December Average Earnings Index, the claimant count change and the December unemployment rate. The ZEW indicators of the economic conditions for Germany and for the Eurozone for the month of February will also be published.

On Wednesday 20, data on Japanese exports, expected to decrease by -1.9% and the balance of trade for the month of January, expected to -30M will also be published. For Germany, the monthly Production Price Index (PPI) will be published, referring to January, forecasted at -0.2%. For the United Kingdom, data on the industrial trend orders in February will be published. For the United States, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be published and there will be important statements by the President of the FED of Saint Luis James Bullard.

On Thursday 21, data on January CPI for Germany, expected to fall by -0.8%, France, expected to fall by -0.5%, and Italy, expected to increase by +0,1% will be published. For France, the February manufacturing PMI, Markit Composite and Services PMI indexes will also be published. The same indexes will be published for Germany, with that of the manufacturing sector expected to increase to 50.0, from the current 49.7 and that of the service sector expected to decrease to 52.6, from the current 53.0, and for the Eurozone, with the manufacturing index expected to remain steady at 50.5, the composite index expected to increase to 51.1 from the current 51.0 and that of services which should remain unchanged at 51.2. The ECB will publish the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting. For the United States, data on orders for “core” durable goods will be published, expected to increase by +0.2% in December, orders for durable goods, expected to increase by +0.8%, the Philadelphia FED Manifacturing Index, expected to decrease to 14.0, Markit indicators related to the manufacturing, services and composite sectors for the month of February and the January existing homes sales, which should remain stable at around 5M. Data on crude oil inventories will be published as usual.

On Friday 22, the German IFO Business Climate Index and the GDP for the fourth quarter of 2018, expected unchanged (0.0%), will be published. For the Eurozone, the January CPI will be published, which is expected to grow by +1.4% on an annual basis, while the core CPI is expected to grow by +1.1%.

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Economic Calendar

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